NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — We are looking to later this week for potential strong to severe thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky on Friday and Saturday. While still a few days out, we want to give you an early alert as the dynamic setup will be the most favorable our region has seen in a while.
Severe Outlook
Since the risk is still 4 to 5 days out, the Storm Prediction Center only issues Slight Risk (15%) and Enhanced Risk (30%) areas. All Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky counties are under the Slight Risk either on Friday, Saturday or both days. From Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday, a few western counties are under the Enhanced Risk. However on Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday, multiple counties southeast of Nashville are under this Enhanced Risk.
EXPLAINER: How severe weather outlooks are issued
It is important to note that there remain many uncertainties at this point. However, Gulf moisture will be quite high, wind energy is projected to be strong, available instability is decent and we have a front to aid in thunderstorm development. Better model data will arrive Wednesday into Thursday to show us a better prediction of our environment for the storms. All threats will be possible.
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Future Tracker
Let’s look at the weather for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
On Thursday, thunderstorms are possible. While the severe risk is very low, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for parts of Alabama. This could trend northward for a wind gust and hail threat.
Rain chances jump up to 40% on Thursday with area showers and even a few thunderstorms. Clouds hopefully decrease to see the Total Lunar Eclipse on Friday early morning.
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On Friday, most of the day is dry with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. South wind increasing and Gulf moisture moving on. Friday night into the early morning hours of Saturday, rain and storms will be increasing with all modes of severe weather possible
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Then, a second round of storms moves through starting Saturday early afternoon through late night. This is due to the cold front, so once again all modes of severe weather are possible.
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While storms could be strong to severe on Friday night into Saturday morning, we also have strong wind gusts increasing for our region at that time. Saturday will also be very windy even outside of the storms.
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The key takeaway: keep updated on our latest forecast. All severe weather ingredients are available for both rounds of severe storms including heavy rain, damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Stay tuned for additional updates. The model data shown above is still on a poor resolution scale because the storm timing is far out. Better resolution and clearer model data will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday.
Don’t forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app.
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