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We’re just about the middle of June, which means that the workhorse starting pitchers are getting closer to halfway through their 2025 regular-season workload. That also means there’s a foundation of what could be a great Cy Young case already in place, but there’s also plenty of time for things to change, whether it’s someone who doesn’t appear to be a factor getting hot (Jake Arrieta’s 2015 run of insanity started on June 21) or someone who looks to be in the race either falling apart or suffering an injury.
When it comes to the 2025 Cy Young races, we do have two clear favorites, but there’s room for others to take home the hardware. Let’s take a look.
AL Cy Young odds and analysis
- Tarik Skubal, Tigers, -190
- Max Fried, Yankees, +700
- Hunter Brown, Astros, +700
- Jacob deGrom, Rangers, +800
- Garrett Crochet, Red Sox, +800
Skubal right now has the mantle when it comes to the best pitcher in the world. Maybe someone would want to make the case for the National League frontrunner (we’ll get there), but I think it’s Skubal and it doesn’t look like it’ll change anytime soon. He was excellent in his return from injury in 2023, won the 2024 AL Cy Young unanimously and now through 13 starts is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA (186 ERA+), 0.82 WHIP and 105 strikeouts against only seven walks in 83 ⅓ innings, adding up to a 3.1 WAR.
As the odds suggest, we’re to the point where it would be surprising for Skubal to not win the award for the second straight season. The last back-to-back Cy Young winner was deGrom (2018-19). The last time it happened in the American League is a good trivia question, as it hasn’t happened since 1999-2000 when Pedro Martinez took home the trophies.
Fried has been a godsend for the Yankees with the Gerrit Cole injury. He’s now 9-1 with a 1.84 ERA (218 ERA+), 0.93 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 88 innings. He’s been close before and is a bona fide contender. Taking the plus-money odds here isn’t a bad choice.
Brown is 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA (222 ERA+), 0.96 WHIP and 93 strikeouts against 25 walks in 79 innings, good for 3.2 WAR. He threw 170 innings last season, so it seems possible he’ll work up into the 190s and that means he could push Skubal. His numbers right now are impressive enough that he’s right with the Tigers ace, so why the odds difference? I think it’s because Brown has never done this before and many bettors are waiting on him to fall apart. But also, Skubal is ridiculous. It’s a tough hill to climb and I’d bet on Skubal beating out Brown the rest of the way, but anyone wanting to wager on Brown at these odds is totally justified.
On the flip side, I just can’t see betting on deGrom. Yes, he has the track record, but he also has an injury track record and he’s already at 76 ⅓ innings now coming off Tommy John surgery. He hasn’t topped 100 since 2019. He’s 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 74 strikeouts against 17 walks in 76 ⅓ innings, but I can’t see him getting much higher than 150 innings this season.
Crochet is 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA (177 ERA+), 1.07 WHIP and 110 strikeouts against 27 walks in 88 innings, tying Fried for the AL lead. He threw 146 innings for the White Sox last season and the Red Sox have monitored his workload closely this season. He’s probably limited to something like 175? Maybe less? His numbers are impressive enough to make a dent, but the workload makes me want to look elsewhere.
Kris Bubic of the Royals is 5-3 with a 1.43 ERA (285 ERA+), 1.00 WHIP and 79 strikeouts against 22 walks in 75 ⅓ innings. He’s at +2200 and that’s because he worked in relief last season and has a career high of 130 innings pitched in a season. It would be shocking to see him hang with Skubal all season with the type of workload needed.
Nathan Eovaldi has also been brilliant but at +4000, it seems no one is buying him sustaining this level of production and I tend to agree.
Simply, Skubal’s main competition here is Fried and Brown. Laying coin on any of the three makes sense.
NL Cy Young odds and analysis
- Paul Skenes, Pirates, -165
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers, +500
- Zack Wheeler, Phillies, +900
- Logan Webb, Giants, +1300
- Chris Sale, Braves, +1600
Skenes has a monster lead in WAR (3.6 to Wheeler’s 2.8). He’s 4-6 with a 1.88 ERA (220 ERA+), 0.84 WHIP and 92 strikeouts against 20 walks in 91 innings. He’s upped his average innings per start to nearly 6 ⅔ and leads the majors in innings pitched. I still have workload concerns, though, in that I’m dubious on the Pirates letting him get close to 200 on the season. Might they cap him at 175? They’ll be out of the race, meaning they might even shut him down late in the season. Maybe they won’t, but that’s my concern here in betting -165 on him.
Yamamoto is 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA (175 ERA+), 1.01 WHIP and 86 strikeouts against 25 walks in 73 ⅔ innings. He’s been a beast of burden for the Dodgers with their small village of starters — multiple rotations’ worth — on the injured list. I’m again gonna preach workload, though, because Yamamoto only threw 108 ⅔ innings between the regular season and playoffs last year and the Dodgers are expecting to need him through October. If they can get the rest of the rotation healthy, he’ll see a phantom IL stint in the second half to limit his load.
Wheeler worked 200 innings last season and has a career high of 213 ⅓. Among the pitchers this season who aren’t injured, he’s with Webb as the closest things we have to workhorses. He’s 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA (145 ERA+), 0.90 WHIP and 101 strikeouts against 19 walks in 82 innings. I understand the Skenes plays, but in looking at these odds, gimme Wheeler.
Webb is someone who can keep up with Wheeler. He led the majors with 216 innings in 2023 and led the NL with 204 ⅔ last year. He’s at 87 ⅓ this season and seems a good bet to top 200 again. He’s 5-5 with a 2.58 ERA (148 ERA+), 1.16 WHIP and 101 strikeouts against 17 walks.
Sale won the award last season and I don’t view him as a major threat to repeat. The Braves look to be in the midst of a lost season and he’s had enough arm issues to worry after his late-season injury in 2024. So far this year, he’s 4-4 with a 2.79 ERA (144 ERA+), 1.22 WHIP and 107 strikeouts against 25 walks in 80 ⅔ innings.
Robbie Ray (+2000) could be a factor. He was the AL Cy Young winner in 2021. He’s 8-1 right now with a 2.44 ERA. He only threw 30 ⅔ innings last year coming off Tommy John surgery, though, so I wouldn’t expect a run toward winning this award.
MacKenzie Gore (+2500) is only 3-5 on a bad Nationals team, but he’s good enough to overcome that if everything breaks right. He’s your dark horse. He has a 2.88 ERA in 81 ⅓ innings with an MLB-best 114 strikeouts.
A shoulder injury and then calf injury held Kodai Senga (+3000) to 10 ⅓ innings last year between the regular season and playoffs. He’s been breathtakingly good this year, at 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA (238 ERA+), 1.18 WHIP and 65 strikeouts against 30 walks in 68 innings. I think you can see where this is headed, though. Save your money. Especially after the Mets get rotation depth back with the returns of Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, Senga’s workload in the second half will be limited. He’s due some ERA regression anyway.
For me, this boils down to how many innings Skenes’ greatness lasts compared to the seasons put up from Wheeler and even Webb. If you wanted a fallback from there, Yamamoto works but I could also see a case for Gore sneaking in there. My prediction remains Wheeler, but there are enough arms and faces in here for it to be very interesting.